At the moment, my money would be on it being Ginger; if only becuse the clothes and acessories are far more Ginger's palette of color than Licorice's Though, of, course it could be Licorice in disguise. Not that that neccecarily means they are not the same.
It occurs to me that a lot of the argument on whether Licorice is a figment of Ginger's imagination/part of her personality versus having an independent existance hinges on an assumption that may in fact be incorrect' that the two views are mutually exclusive and that BOTH can't be true. Even if Locirice is independent now, it doesn't mean she ALWAYS was. Bear with me for a moment
We know that Ginger has something akin to magic powers, and that magic works in her word (the fact she can bake a gingerbread man and have it come to actual life is pretty strong proof of that.) To my mind, that may change the argument. Licorice could be a creation of Ginger's mind and STILL have a real, physical existance. Magic lore is LOUSY with creatures that are basically figments of a persons mind or soul but are still physically present or observable. Dopplegengars, Tulkas, Fetches, Duppies...; it's a pretty long list. Some of those can even manipulate objects in a poltergeist like manner (and remember that deep emotional trauma and stress is usually said to be be one of the overriding factors in poltergeist activity.) Toss stress and magic together, and you could easily have a being that was created from Ginger's mind, and yet has an existance that is functionally completely independent of her conscios control and was perfectly visible to other people and capable of interacting with them.
"For I have heard the Song of War, and to me, it sounds just like "Please, Mister Custer.""
Cogito Ergot Sum, "I think there is something wrong with this rye bread." (Aplogies to Seafrol.)